Dispatch from Davos
I’m writing this bulletin from Davos, Switzerland, home of the 2022 World Economic Forum (WEF). This is the first time the annual gathering of world leaders, CEOs, and public figures takes place in the spring (no snow boots!), courtesy of Omicron. It’s also the first in-person forum since the pandem…
A call for an independent inquiry into the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus
Since the identification of theSARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan, China, in January 2020 (1), the origin of the virus has been a topic of intense scientific debate and public speculation. The two main hypotheses are that the virus emerged from human exposure to an infected animal [“zoonosis” (2)] or that it emerg…
The Lose-Lose Tech War
SINGAPORE/LOS ANGELES – The Sino-American geopolitical rivalry is growing increasingly bitter, with Russia’s war in Ukraine only the latest source of schism. The mutual antagonism is deepening, with little effort on either side to stem the deterioration in the bilateral relationship. It doesn’t have…
Challenges for India’s upcoming G20 presidency
The pandemic and the Ukraine crisis have elevated global debt levels to new heights, beyond the stress nations were already facing before the pandemic. According to the recent IMF World Economic Outlook, the debt-to-GDP ratio in the median emerging market and the middle-income country was about 60 p…
Soft Power After Ukraine
CAMBRIDGE – As Russian missiles pound Ukrainian cities, and as Ukrainians fight to defend their country, some avowed realists might say, “So much for soft power.” But such a response betrays a shallow analysis. Power is the ability to affect others to get the outcomes you want. A smart realist under…
Deforestation of Brazil’s Amazon Has Reached a Record High. What’s Being Done?
Scientists warn that the world’s largest rain forest is approaching a critical tipping point past which there could be severe, irreversible consequences for the planet. New data from Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research shows that 166 square miles of the Amazon were cleared in Januar…
World economy: the big factors to watch closely
Will 2022 be the year when the world economy recovers from the pandemic? That’s the big question on everyone’s lips as the festive break comes to an end. One complicating factor is that most of the latest major forecasts were published in the weeks before the omicron variant swept the worl…
Clouds Over 2022
Although major economies and markets fared well in 2021 despite all of the surrounding new variants of the coronavirus, 2022 will bring new challenges. In addition to central banks shifting toward policy normalization, geopolitical and systemic risks are multiplying. NEW YORK – Despite dips and disr…
Russian Foreign Policy: Shifting Gears
Not long ago, a popular Russian joke went: “Those who do not want to listen to Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will have to deal with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.” Now it is official. President Vladimir Putin often makes statements on foreign policy. Just last month, he spent several hours discuss…
Time to Overhaul the Global Financial System
For low- and lower-middle-income countries to pursue their development goals and do their part in tackling problems like climate change, they need to be able to borrow reliably on decent market terms. Yet the current two-tiered global financial system extends this privilege almost exclusively to ric…