Baku’s Difficult Balancing Act
Nikolas K. Gvosdev It has been a ill-omened start of the year for Azerbaijan’s foreign policy. For the last several years, Baku was attempting to embrace its position as a so-called “keystone state” in one of the world’s most strategic pieces of real estate.”Keystone states” are those countries “loc…
Exporting the Chinese Model
Francis Fukuyama As 2016 begins, an historic contest is underway over competing development models – that is, strategies to promote economic growth – between China, on the one hand, and the US and other Western countries on the other. Although this contest has been largely hidden from public view, t…
The dollar’s international role: An “exorbitant privilege”?
Ben S. Bernanke This post is the third of three based on my Mundell-Fleming lecture, which discussed the international effects of Fed policy. In the two previous posts (see here and here), I addressed a pair of criticisms of recent U.S. monetary policy: (1) that the U.S. had engaged in “currency war…
How New Year’s Eve in Cologne Has Changed Germany
Spiegel Online A lot happened on New Year’s Eve in Cologne, much of it contradictory, much of it real, much of it imagined. Some was happenstance, some was exaggerated and much of it was horrifying. In its entirety, the events of Cologne on New Year’s Eve and in the days that followed adhered to a s…
Asking the Right Questions about ISIS: Between Politics and Ideology
Hisham A. Hellyer The discussion around whether or not the Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL) is Islamic began as soon as the group entered onto the world stage. It throws up a number of queries for policy makers in the United States, Europe, and the Arab world, and the policy prescriptions will differ de…
The Geopolitics of the Paris Talks
Nick Mabey World headlines blare the news that negotiators in Paris have reached a global climate change agreement. Yet underneath the soaring rhetoric were hard politics that can tell a lot about the longevity of the deal. As the Paris climate negotiations moved toward their final days, delegates’ …
Oil Prices and Global Growth
Kenneth Rogoff One of the biggest economic surprises of 2015 is that the stunning drop in global oil prices did not deliver a bigger boost to global growth. Despite the collapse in prices, from over $115 per barrel in June 2014 to $45 at the end of November 2015, most macroeconomic models suggest th…
As Ebola Lingers in Liberia, What Have We Learned?
The deadly West African Ebola epidemic has largely faded from headlines, replaced by mounting concern over conflict in the Middle East, terrorism, and refugees streaming into Europe. But while Guinea and Sierra Leone were declared free of the disease in November, Monrovia saw three new cases two wee…
Two Cheers for the Paris Agreement on Climate Change
Michael A. Levi The Paris climate summit (also known as COP 21) has adopted a new “Paris Agreement”. The agreement has the potential to mark a laudable and historic shift in how the world negotiates cooperation on climate change. It does not justify the over-the-top claims that some are making – tha…
France’s far-right National Front loses a round, but they will be back
The Economist The FN had looked especially likely to win in either the north, where Ms Le Pen was running, or the south, where her 26-year-old niece Marion Maréchal-Le Pen was the candidate. In the end, neither could summon a majority. But they were defeated only after the left pulled out and urged …